Optimizing MLB Pitching: A Deep Dive into Pitch Selection and Performance

Explore how MLB pitchers optimize their pitch selection using advanced analytics and game theory, highlighting the most and least balanced pitchers in the league.

Introduction

Pitching in Major League Baseball (MLB) is as much an art as it is a science. With the advent of advanced analytics, pitchers can now fine-tune their arsenals to maximize effectiveness. This article delves into the concept of Nash Scores, a metric rooted in game theory, to evaluate how pitchers are optimizing their pitch selection.

The Science Behind Pitch Selection

Modern pitchers rely on a combination of data and intuition to keep hitters guessing. The shape, spin, and velocity of each pitch are meticulously analyzed to create a repertoire that can confound even the best hitters. However, despite this sophistication, inefficiencies in pitch deployment can still exist.

Understanding Nash Scores

The Nash Score, named after the Nash equilibrium in game theory, compares the runs a pitcher saves with each pitch to the average runs saved by all of his other pitches combined. A low Nash Score indicates a balanced pitch mix, while a high score suggests potential inefficiencies.

Top Optimized Starters

Here are the top 15 starters who have achieved the greatest balance in their pitch selection over the past three seasons:

Pitcher Team(s) WAR Nash Score No. 1 Pitch No. 2 Pitch
Jake Irvin WSN 4.1 0.05 4-Seam FB (35%), +0.13 Curveball (33%), -0.13
Garrett Crochet CHW, BOS 6.7 0.06 4-Seam FB (49%), -0.14 Cutter (28%), +0.18
Kutter Crawford BOS 4.6 0.09 4-Seam FB (35%), -0.11 Cutter (31%), +0.43
Jesus Luzardo MIA, PHI 6.4 0.11 4-Seam FB (40%), -0.20 Slider (32%), +0.46
Ryan Pepiot LAD, TBR 4.3 0.11 4-Seam FB (48%), +0.32 Changeup (24%), -0.37
Freddy Peralta MIL 7.3 0.15 4-Seam FB (55%), +0.08 Changeup (18%), +0.67
Taj Bradley TBR 1.8 0.21 4-Seam FB (43%), -0.57 Cutter (22%), +0.22
Taijuan Walker PHI 1.8 0.25 Splitter (26%), -0.57 Sinker (23%), -0.16
Corbin Burnes MIL, BAL, ARI 9.2 0.34 Cutter (50%), +0.57 Curveball (20%), +0.03
MacKenzie Gore WSN 6.1 0.36 4-Seam FB (54%), +0.04 Curveball (21%), +0.31
Tarik Skubal DET 12.5 0.37 4-Seam FB (32%), -0.05 Changeup (28%), +0.62
Justin Verlander HOU, NYM, SFG 3.9 0.39 4-Seam FB (49%), -0.09 Slider (25%), +0.94
Nathan Eovaldi TEX 8.2 0.41 4-Seam FB (35%), -0.30 Splitter (30%), +0.84
Jameson Taillon CHC 4.2 0.42 4-Seam FB (34%), -0.48 Cutter (20%), +0.44
Reese Olson DET 4.5 0.42 Slider (27%), +0.47 Sinker (24%), +0.15

Top Optimized Relievers

Relievers often have simpler repertoires, making it easier to achieve a balanced pitch mix. Here are the top 15 relievers who have excelled in this area:

Pitcher Team(s) WAR Nash Score No. 1 Pitch No. 2 Pitch
Paul Sewald ARI, SEA, CLE 1.2 0.01 4-Seam FB (58%), +0.05 Slider (41%), -0.06
Colin Poche TBR, WSN 1.2 0.01 4-Seam FB (68%), +0.11 Slider (32%), -0.11
Tanner Scott MIA, SDP, LAD 6.2 0.03 4-Seam FB (56%), -0.14 Slider (44%), +0.15
Joe Jimenez ATL 2.5 0.03 4-Seam FB (51%), -0.06 Slider (44%), -0.08
Alexis Díaz CIN 1.6 0.03 4-Seam FB (56%), -0.18 Slider (44%), +0.18
Orion Kerkering PHI 1.8 0.03 Slider (56%), +0.06 4-Seam FB (28%), -0.26
A.J. Minter ATL, NYM 2 0.08 4-Seam FB (46%), -0.02 Cutter (39%), +0.30
Elvis Peguero MIL 1.1 0.08 Slider (50%), +0.27 Sinker (50%), -0.26
Brad Keller KCR, BOS, CHW, CHC 0.6 0.09 4-Seam FB (39%), +0.07 Slider (37%), +0.07
Edwin Diaz NYM 1.6 0.1 4-Seam FB (52%), +0.31 Slider (48%), -0.31
Jeremiah Estrada CHC, SDP 1.6 0.1 4-Seam FB (61%), -0.10 Slider (20%), -0.36
Kyle Finnegan WSN 2 0.12 4-Seam FB (68%), +0.31 Splitter (28%), -0.10
Luis Garcia SDP, BOS, LAA, LAD 0 0.12 Sinker (45%), -0.32 Slider (29%), -0.05
Ryan Walker SFG 3.1 0.15 Sinker (55%), +0.07 Slider (44%), +0.01
Craig Kimbrel PHI, BAL, ATL 0.8 0.15 4-Seam FB (66%), +0.26 Kn. Curve (30%), -0.37

Conclusion

Nash Scores provide a unique lens through which to view pitcher performance. By analyzing pitch selection and effectiveness, we can identify pitchers who are maximizing their arsenals and those who may need to adjust their strategies. Whether you're a fan, analyst, or player, understanding these metrics can offer valuable insights into the complex world of MLB pitching.

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